Russia’s deployment of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile on Thursday signals a dangerous shift in its military strategy, diverging from the Cold War doctrine of deterrence. The strike represents the first known use of a ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) in combat, marking a troubling precedent.
MIRVs and the Cold War Doctrine
During the Cold War, MIRVs were developed as strategic deterrents. The logic was simple: even if an adversary launched a nuclear first strike, MIRVs could ensure devastating retaliation, thereby deterring either side from initiating conflict. However, analysts warn that MIRVs may incentivize preemptive strikes rather than prevent them.
MIRVs carry multiple warheads, each capable of targeting a different location. This increases their destructive capacity but also makes them high-priority targets in a conflict. Destroying a MIRVed missile before launch is easier than intercepting individual warheads traveling at hypersonic speeds.
According to the Federation of American Scientists, the “use-it-or-lose-it” dilemma associated with MIRVs exacerbates crisis instability. Nations with MIRV-equipped arsenals might feel compelled to strike first in a tense situation to avoid losing their deterrent capability.
Thursday’s Strike
The missile, reportedly launched at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro, unleashed multiple warheads, each approaching its target from different angles. While the warheads were not nuclear, the psychological impact of their use in conventional warfare cannot be overstated. Each warhead demands an individual interception effort, straining even advanced air defense systems.
Although the United States received prior notice of the missile launch, the event has heightened fears across Europe and beyond. This act raises urgent questions about the erosion of traditional deterrence principles and the risks of miscalculation in a nuclear-armed world.
The Global MIRV Arsenal
MIRV technology is no longer exclusive to Russia and the United States. Countries like China, the United Kingdom, and France have long integrated MIRVs into their submarine-launched ballistic missiles. Emerging nuclear states, including India and Pakistan, have also joined the MIRV race.
- China: Deployed MIRVs on DF-5 intercontinental ballistic missiles.
- India: Successfully tested MIRVed ICBMs in early 2024.
- Pakistan: Tested MIRV-capable Ababeel missiles in 2017.
- North Korea: Suspected to be developing MIRV technology.
Land-based MIRVs are particularly concerning because they are stationary and easier to locate, making them vulnerable first-strike targets. In contrast, submarine-launched MIRVs are stealthier and less prone to preemptive attacks.
Escalation Risks
As more nations acquire MIRV capabilities, the risks of a nuclear arms race grow. The Federation of American Scientists has warned that the increasing deployment of MIRVs undermines global stability, incentivizing rapid escalation in crises.
The expansion of MIRV technology underscores the urgent need for renewed international arms control agreements. Without such measures, the world faces a future where nuclear brinkmanship becomes increasingly common—a prospect far more dangerous than the era of Cold War deterrence.
Conclusion
Russia’s use of MIRVs in combat has set a troubling precedent, marking a significant departure from decades of strategic norms. As more nations develop and deploy this technology, the global community must address the escalating risks to avoid catastrophic miscalculations in an already volatile geopolitical landscape.
